Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The average number of daily killings per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide figures may not signal enhanced national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” the President stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true given the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.